近年來美國產(chǎn)業(yè)政策出現(xiàn)調(diào)整，一改過去數(shù)十年來“自由放任”的狀態(tài)，從供給側(cè)和需求側(cè)同時發(fā)力，意欲動用政策手段打壓中國，同時增強自身供應(yīng)鏈韌性，重奪產(chǎn)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。近日，清華大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院教授、巴西前旅游部部長Alessandro Golombiewski Teixeira在China Daily上發(fā)表文章On the tech attack，探討美國產(chǎn)業(yè)政策調(diào)整與中國應(yīng)對舉措。
On the tech attack
圖源 China Daily
In an attempt to save its leadership in some segments, the United States has implemented economic protection measures from different sides to the point that it has used an unprecedented measure to ban exports to China of Nvidia and AMD's flagship artificial intelligence chips. Some may think this measure is an isolated one — in the semiconductor leadership war — but in reality, it is part of the new US industrial and innovation policy strategy.
為了挽回自己在某些領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位，美國在多領(lǐng)域?qū)嵤┝私?jīng)濟保護主義措施，最近又史無前例地禁止向中國出口英偉達和AMD的高端人工智能芯片。有些人可能會認為，這只是一個孤立的個案，是美國為爭奪半導(dǎo)體領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力而實施的。但實際上，它背后反映出的是美國產(chǎn)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新政策的戰(zhàn)略性調(diào)整。
Some US policymakers have called for the US government to take measures to change its industrial and innovation policies, which have been largely laissez-faire for several decades and have indirectly and directly encouraged companies to outsource their manufacturing productions. In addition, they understand that the increasing dependency of the US government on private sector innovations has shifted research and development priorities and has been weakening the US structural competitiveness capabilities. According to the US National Science Foundation, the US private sector was responsible for 72 percent of all R&D funding in the US in 2019. The main view of US policymakers is that the loss of critical manufacturing capabilities must be shored up to rebuild the US technological and market leadership.
過去幾十年來，美國的產(chǎn)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新政策基本上處于“自由放任”的狀態(tài)，這直接或間接地鼓勵了企業(yè)將生產(chǎn)制造環(huán)節(jié)外包出去。因此，一些政策制定者已經(jīng)開始呼吁美國政府采取措施，改變其產(chǎn)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新政策。此外他們還意識到，美國政府對私營部門創(chuàng)新的依賴日益增大，導(dǎo)致研發(fā)重點發(fā)生“跑偏”，削弱了美國的結(jié)構(gòu)性競爭力。根據(jù)美國國家科學(xué)基金會的數(shù)據(jù)，2019年，私營部門承擔(dān)了美國72%的研發(fā)資金。因此，美國政策制定者的總體觀點是，必須要彌補關(guān)鍵制造能力的缺失，以重建美國在技術(shù)和市場方面的領(lǐng)先地位。
With that in mind, the new US industrial and innovation policy is structured with the objectives of increasing the resilience in its supply chain leadership, restructuring public-private collaboration based on new financing models, increasing and improving public procurement, and using decarbonization policies to mobilize new resources toward a green economy to maintain its world economic leadership.
基于這一點，美國新的產(chǎn)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新政策目標就是增強其供應(yīng)鏈領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力韌性，在新的融資模式基礎(chǔ)上重組公私合作，增加和完善公共采購，并利用脫碳政策引導(dǎo)新的資源投入綠色經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，以保持其在世界經(jīng)濟中的領(lǐng)先地位。
As one of the main objectives, the US government will finance and protect the private sector that is struggling to adjust to the rapidly changing demand for products, supply chains with multiple choke points, and of course, the loss of leadership in global supply chains. Moreover, the US government knows that without strengthening the public systems that connect manufacturing, researchers, workers, and small businesses through a very extensive program of investment in physical and digital infrastructure — in which they need to modernize the ports, airports, rail systems, and give universal access to affordable broadband, and power grid expansion and efficiency — this will not happen.
當前美國私營部門正面臨多重挑戰(zhàn)，如產(chǎn)品需求快速變化，全球供應(yīng)鏈存在多處“堵點”，另外當然還有美國正在失去對全球供應(yīng)鏈的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。因此，美國政府的主要目標之一，就是為私營部門提供資金和保護。但同時美國政府也很清楚，為了實現(xiàn)這一目標，一套強有力的公共體系也必不可少，必須要對實體和數(shù)字基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施進行廣泛的投資——也就是說不僅要有現(xiàn)代化的港口、機場和鐵路系統(tǒng)，還要有廉價、普及的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，以及規(guī)模更大、效率更高的電網(wǎng)，以此來把制造業(yè)巨頭、小企業(yè)、科研人員和工人全都連接、整合起來。如果沒有這些，一切都免談。
Another important point that the Joe Biden administration has been very emphatic about is the necessity of the US government to use public procurement as an engine for industrial and innovation development, shaping markets to align with the US government's industrial strategic goals.
拜登政府一直強調(diào)的另一個重點是，必須將公共采購作為產(chǎn)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新發(fā)展的引擎，塑造一個符合美國政府產(chǎn)業(yè)戰(zhàn)略目標的市場。
Analyzing the latest policy measures that the US government has taken — the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, the CHIPS and Science Act with $52.7 billion for US semiconductor research, development, manufacturing, and workforce development, and the Inflation Reduction Act with $369 billion for clean energy and climate change mitigation initiatives, it can be concluded that the US government, for the first time in recent decades, has opened the "tool box" with supply-push (e.g., subsidies for new factories) and also demand-pull policies (e.g. create a market for the products of the new factories) to regain the industrial and innovation leadership that has already been lost in many sectors.
美國政府近期通過了一系列政策措施，有價值1萬億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)法案，有為半導(dǎo)體研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)和相關(guān)勞動力培訓(xùn)提供527億美元支持的《芯片與科學(xué)法案》，還有斥資3690億美元用于清潔能源開發(fā)和減緩氣候變化的《降低通貨膨脹法案》。由此可以看出，美國政府近幾十年來第一次打開了“政策工具箱”，通過供給側(cè)推動（比如為新工廠提供補貼）和需求側(cè)拉動（比如為新工廠的產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)造市場），兩側(cè)同時發(fā)力，意欲重奪其在諸多領(lǐng)域失去的產(chǎn)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。
A good example of this lost leadership is the industries associated with the green economy. China has emerged as the world leader in the production of renewable energy equipment and electric cars and buses. The US has targeted this sector to foster industries in hydrogen production, carbon capture, new sources for batteries, support for the solar energy equipment industry, and has created a mass subsidy for electric vehicles in which each citizen will receive a maximum $4,000 tax credit for a used electric vehicle and $7,500 if it is new, but only if at least 40 percent of the raw metals and minerals (such as lithium and cobalt) used in the vehicle's battery are mined and refined in the United States, or in a country with which the United States has a free-trade agreement. This attempt follows the affirmation from President Joe Biden that "years from now our children will look back at this time as the moment when America had the chance to win the 21st Century".
綠色經(jīng)濟相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)就是上文提到的美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力喪失的一個典型例子。中國已經(jīng)成為可再生能源設(shè)備以及電動汽車生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的世界領(lǐng)先者。美國也已瞄準這一領(lǐng)域，扶持氫能、碳捕獲、新電池材料、太陽能裝備等行業(yè)，并對電動汽車給予大規(guī)模補貼——根據(jù)《降低通貨膨脹法案》，購買一輛全新或二手電動汽車可分別獲得最高7500美元和4000美元的稅收抵免，但前提是汽車電池中的關(guān)鍵礦物原料（如鋰和鈷）至少要有40%是在美國本土或與美國有自貿(mào)協(xié)定的國家開采和提煉的。在此之前，美國總統(tǒng)拜登就曾斷言：“多年以后，我們的后代在回顧這一時刻時，會將其視為美國有機會贏得21世紀的時刻?！?/p>
These US actions will put pressure on the Chinese manufacturing markets, not only by limiting the production capacity but also by demanding large-scale investments in science and technology, improving industrial upgrading, improving demand-pull policies, especially in innovation, and continuing to cultivate and attract talents. Inevitably, China will need to continue its reform and opening-up policy and encourage knowledge-intensive entrepreneurship with a deep reform in its business capabilities to further develop its science and technology.
美國的這些行動將對中國制造業(yè)市場造成壓力，不僅限制了中國企業(yè)的產(chǎn)能，還倒逼中國加大科技投資，加快產(chǎn)業(yè)升級，完善需求拉動政策，特別是創(chuàng)新政策，需要繼續(xù)培養(yǎng)和吸引人才。毋庸置疑的是，中國必須繼續(xù)堅持改革開放，鼓勵發(fā)展知識密集型企業(yè)，同時深化企業(yè)改革，提高經(jīng)營水平，以進一步加強科技實力。
來源 | China Daily、中國日報中國觀察智庫
